2050, challenges and opportunities for agribusiness
Decio Luiz Gazzoni
By 2050, the world population will increase more than 3 billion people, coinciding with the incorporation into the market of 1 billion people, currently in a state of food nutrition or insecurity. From agriculture, besides food, the society demands clean energy, ornamental plants and flowers, timber, medicinal principles and raw material for the chemical industry.
Social pressure for environmental protection and fear of the effects of Global Climate Change requires an acceleration of productivity increment, as opposed to the expansion cropping area. Thus, the XXIst century agriculture will have two major brands: sustainability and constant technological innovation. Sustainability meaning that the farmer will get farm profitability while minimizing environmental impacts and fulfilling its social function. Technological innovations will give sustainability to the production and definitely will contradict Malthus, as agricultural production will at rates higher than the population increase.
According to FAO, the world grows 1.5 billion hectares, 70% in livestock. Although the FAO indicate there is arable land for crop expansion equivalent to the presently used one, several restrictions streak: a) the most fertile and appropriate and well located lands, have been occupied yet b) considerable portion of the expansion area is arable only under Irrigation, c) much of the expansion area is in Africa, with severe restrictions to its incorporation for the next 40 years d) the global society is pushing for global environmental policies increasingly strict.
Currently, it takes 0.22 hectares to feed 6.7 billion people. High-tech areas allow feeding a person with only 0.1 ha. The challenge of this century is to break this barrier, in this manner close to its physical limit. Assuming 70% growth in global food production by 2050 is hardly possible to incorporate, for food production, more than 20% of the current area (ca. 300 million hectares), since there will also be pressure to increase the area for other products agriculture. Therefore, it is necessary productivity gains exceeding 40%, which requires immediate action to prevent impaired food supply to the projected demand, or undesirable environmental impacts of the expansion of the agricultural frontier. Brazil, as a leading global player, must raise its productivity far above the estimated 40% to offset smaller gains in areas where productivity is already high or where productivity will remain low.
In this context, the world demand for soybeans will continue to grow between 4 and 6% per year over the next 20 years. In the USA, expansion area has reached its limit, allowing for a trade-off between the various crops, benefiting or harming soybeans, according to its profitability as compared to other grains. China will reduce its acreage. Africa is a great promise – probably after 2040!. To balance supply and demand of the international trade, Brazil and Argentina will offer most of the additional soybean production in the future. To prevent expansion of the area, with the potential associated environmental impacts, the CESB (Strategic Committee Soybean Brazil) put up an aggressive program to stimulate the growth of soybean. It is the only way to meet the demand of the market, combining cutting edge technology and sustainability of production.
The author is Agronomist, adviser to the Strategic Affairs Secretariat of the Brazilian Presidency, member of the Scientific Panel on International Renewable Energy of the International Council for Science, and member of the Strategy Committee Soybean Brazil.